@COP17: The Non-ending of COP17

It is Saturday, almost lunch time, and it looks like the negotiations might keep going for a while. Here is a short run-down of the events since yesterday.

When I entered the ICC yesterday morning, it felt like ‘the air had gone out’ of this conference. Now everything was in the hand on the ministers, and everyone else leaned back, relaxed and waited for the Indaba to end and the Closing Plenary to open. The booths in the DEC emptied out, many observers started to leave, and the atmosphere was strangely relaxed. I thought this was crunch time??? 

Friday night came and went without a conclusion to the climate talks.

The COP and CMP held their first Closing Plenaries, where a long list of agenda items were decided, but a long list also remained untouched. Those sessions felt a bit like Bingo – lots of numbers (document references) were read out, but nothing exciting happened. That meant that all the important stuff was still under negotiation elsewhere.

In the early evening the Ministerial Indaba was negotiating a first text of the potential Durban Deal, but nobody seemed to like it. AOSIS and the Least Developed Countries were furious about the timeline and lack of urgency reflected in Draft 1, which proposed to launch a process at next year’s COP that would result in a “legal framework applicable to all … after 2020”. China and India said the text was unacceptable because it would be the end of the Kyoto Protocol; that sentiment was mirrored in statements of the African Group. The EU’s Connie Hedegard confirmed that there was “massive pushback” to Draft 1.

Around 10 pm the UNFCCC Secretariat announced that the next plenary would not happen until 10 am on Saturday morning and urged observers to go home. That’s when people moved to the open-air deck of the ICC, had beers and speculated how long this COP might last. We all got much more sleep than we had hoped for. Not so the ministers and negotiators.

The ministers had gone to dinner while a new negotiation text was being developed. Draft 2 was tweaked and twisted until about 2 am, and seems to have been received much more favorably. My first read is that it fully reflects the EU Roadmap proposed here in Durban on day one: a second Kyoto commitment period and immediate negotiations of a new agreement with emission reduction obligations for all major emitters that will be finalized latest in 2015 and implemented as soon as possible after that. The language on the legal character of the future agreement – “a legal instrument applicable to all Parties, no later than 2015” – seems acceptable to the EU and the US. Interestingly the BASIC countries have split over the Durban Deal: Brazil and South Africa apparently support the EU Roadmap, but China and India remain opposed. So much for BASIC unity, which they sought to emphasize in their first joint press briefing here at COP17 earlier this week. My guess is that China is ready to sign up, but India remains a really tough nut to crack. And the Chinese are simply holding out in a gesture of partnership with the Indians. So it all seems to comes down to breaking Indian opposition. Suggestions, anybody?

When we got back here this morning everything looked like the day before. The only difference was the absence of a Daily Program, the ENB and ECO – my best friends during the last two weeks.  People are pouring over the new AWG-LCA text (down to 56 unbracketed pages), the draft decision on the Green Climate Fund and the draft amendments to the Kyoto Protocol. The CCTV screens read “Next Plenary to be announced”. A security guard at Baobab said the session would take place at 3pm, although he had not been told whether that was today or tomorrow. Oh my.